What does Trump's return to the White House mean for NATO?
As European leaders and lawmakers reckoned on Wednesday morning with Donald Trump's landslide victory in the US presidential election, one of the main concerns across the continent will be how his administration will handle NATO.
Some EU heads of state were quick to congratulate Trump and expressed their willingness to work with him, but stressed that they would protect Europe's interests. In the run-up to the US election, some European policymakers had said they were worried about what a Trump victory might mean on issues from aid to Ukraine to the future of NATO.
Trump has repeatedly criticized the alliance and complained that the US contributes too much to its budget, while EU members spend too little on defence. During his election campaign, he said the US would protect NATO members from a future attack by Russia only if they met their defense spending obligations.
Alliance chief Mark Rutte, who met with Trump several times during his 14-year tenure as Dutch prime minister, praised the US president-elect in a post on X on Wednesday morning, while also stressing the importance of NATO . In a longer statement, Rutte referred to the many challenges facing the alliance, but did not specifically mention Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Rutte also said Trump would be welcomed by an "alliance stronger, bigger and more united" and emphasized an increase in defense and production spending among its members.
NATO estimates that 23 of its 32 members will meet its target of spending at least 2% of GDP on defense this year, up from just three countries a decade ago. That's partly because of pressure on the alliance from Trump during his previous presidency, but mostly because of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, officials and analysts have previously said.
While Rutte must walk a political tightrope with Trump returning to the White House, others in Europe should not be so diplomatic when expressing their views. Political analysts say pragmatism will be key to dealing with Trump in NATO. Fortunately for Europe, Rutte is known as "Teflon Mark" in the Netherlands for his flexibility, cunning, deception and nose for political opportunism. He is said to have treated Trump well in their previous meetings and that the US president-elect has held him in relatively good regard.
At a 2018 NATO summit where Trump hinted that the US could leave the alliance, then-Dutch Prime Minister Rutte praised the US president for pushing Europe to spend more on defense during his tenure, even though this was not true. The US is by far NATO's biggest funder and will spend about $968 billion (€900 billion) on defense in 2024, according to the latest estimates from the alliance.
However, the US is facing a debt crisis that is raising questions about how the government will maintain or increase defense spending with interest on the federal debt at a record high and Trump's spending and tax plans likely to see only worsening this growing burden. European members are raising the money, relatively speaking, with Germany this year hitting a spending target of 2% of GDP for the first time since the end of the Cold War, and France is doing so as well. Many countries bordering Ukraine and Russia have increased their spending in light of the conflict, such as Estonia, Finland, Romania, Hungary and Poland.
Notably, Poland has doubled its defense spending to more than 4% of GDP over the past decade, and the government has pledged to raise that proportion to 5% next year, which would make it the largest contributor to alliance in terms of economic production. On Tuesday, Rutte visited Italy where he met with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and President Sergio Mattarella to discuss defense and support for Ukraine.
As the NATO chief reminded the Italian prime minister of the importance of the 2% spending target that Italy is on track to spend 1.49% of GDP on defense this year, up from 1.5% in 2023, Meloni called on European countries to take a greater role in the alliance. This is seen as having a dual purpose: it could serve to appease Washington by demonstrating greater commitment and efficiency from EU members, and to strengthen the continent's ability to defend itself should the US decide to shake off or eventually to leave the alliance.
Fittingly, Italy in 2025 will host the next conference on the reconstruction of Ukraine. Since taking office a few months ago, Rutte has been trying to rally Western support for the country's fight against aggression. The alliance is on track to provide Ukraine with 40 billion euros this year, he said, and has reportedly agreed to maintain that level of funding in 2025.
This could be significant given that Trump has criticized the level of US support for Kiev, with the Biden administration giving Ukraine tens of billions of dollars in military and financial aid. Trump's promise that he could end the conflict before taking office without further explanation has raised alarm about what that could mean for Ukraine's war effort, especially given his repeated criticism of the president of Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy and previous praise for Russia's Vladimir Putin.
The value of arms supplied to Ukraine would drop to 34 billion euros from a projected 59 billion euros if US aid to Kiev were completely cut, according to the study by Germany's Kiel University.
Earlier this year, NATO allies decided to take a bigger role in coordinating the supply of arms to Ukraine, taking over from the US to protect the process amid concerns about what a Trump presidency might say. for the efforts. Add to the mix an increasingly nationalistic and protectionist Trump and Republican Party, which some analysts have even described as isolationist, and there are growing fears of what this could mean when it comes to the US's attitude towards NATO and global security.
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