Analysis/ "Liberation Day" shakes Republican dominance - Citizens, dissatisfied with the economic costs brought by tariffs
US President Donald Trump called it "Liberation Day", but the introduction of reciprocal tariffs could cause political tensions within the party and economic pain for his constituents if the promises do not work.
Experts say it will take years to restart production in the US and change supply chains, goals that Republican Trump believes can be achieved thanks to tariffs.
Meanwhile, consumers will see higher prices, the economy could shrink, and allies will impose their own tariffs on American products. These effects Trump has called a "concern," but voters may not tolerate them in next year's midterm elections.
Trump's Republicans control the House and Senate by narrow margins. Losses from tariffs could transfer power in one or both chambers to opposition Democrats.
“Trump has a high tolerance for pain, but it could translate into real pain at the ballot box in November 2026,” said a former communications director for the president during his first term. “The concern here is when are we going to see the benefits that he and his advisers believe we will reap? Because he only has 18 months before the midterm elections.”
Economists say tariffs translate into taxes on consumers, and 70% of Americans, including 62% of Republicans, believe tariffs will raise the prices of groceries and other consumer goods, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.
About 53% of respondents in the survey agreed with the statement that raising tariffs would do more harm than good, while 31% disagreed. The rest were unsure or did not respond.
"The main risk is the economy. First, there is an immediate risk to prices and this is a president who was elected partly to lower prices," experts explain. According to them, another problem is the possibility that the economy will enter a recession.
High prices and voter concerns about inflation were important factors that doomed the Democratic candidate, former Vice President Kamala Harris.
A few days ago, Trump said that tariffs ranging from 34 percent on Chinese goods, in addition to an additional 20 percent tax, to 20 percent duties on goods from the European Union, would enrich the United States' coffers.
"Now it's our turn to move forward and use trillions of dollars to cut taxes and pay down our national debt, and it's going to happen very quickly," he said. But tariffs are paid by importers, not foreign countries, and they are usually passed along with additional costs to consumers.
Electoral risk
The first moments of discontent are beginning to appear among Republicans. Republican candidates won two special elections in Florida by a much smaller margin than when Trump won the state last year.
The U.S. Senate passed legislation that would end new tariffs on Canada by a 51-48 vote, which included support from four Republicans. However, the measure is likely to remain shelved in the House of Representatives.
Trump's tariff announcement sent U.S. stock futures plummeting. A broad decline in stock markets would hurt Americans' 401k retirement savings accounts.
“Liberation Day seems to be about freeing American businesses and consumers from their money,” said a former Republican congressional aide, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “You can’t completely reshape the global economy in a day,” he added.
The White House, which blames former President Joe Biden for inflation, says the Trump administration is doing everything it can to lower the cost of living and dismisses concerns about the political fallout of his trade agenda.
The healthy economy that Trump inherited from Biden, with growth of nearly 3% in 2024, with unemployment around 4% and inflation below 3%, is showing signs of decline, although the data has shown little evidence of a near-term slowdown.
However, surveys measuring confidence in the economic outlook among households and businesses have uniformly turned downward in the past two months since Trump began threatening tariffs, reversing the optimism that brought him to power in November.
Poll
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