An asteroid could hit Earth in 2032 - Scientists study its trajectory and ways to avoid it
An asteroid that has a small chance of hitting Earth in 2032 is being monitored by the European Space Agency (ESA), according to the Planetary Protection Office.
Called 'Asteroid 2024 YR4', it has a nearly 99% chance of safely passing Earth on December 22, 2032, but a possible impact cannot yet be completely ruled out. It was first identified as a threat in December 2024 by the ATLAS Early Warning System telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile. It is now moving away from Earth, but will return in 2028.
"After the discovery, we usually start collecting more measurements, more observations, and we quickly noticed that the object had a chance of colliding with Earth in December 2032," said Juan Luis Cano of the Planetary Defense Office.
The asteroid's density and composition are unknown, but it is estimated to be between 40 m and 90 m and traveling at about 15 times the speed of a bullet. "The speed would be 17.3 kilometers per second at the moment of a possible impact. The amount of energy that would be released would range from 5 to 50 megatons," Cano said.
Astronomers have been recording observations of the asteroid using telescopes around the world, in an attempt to better understand its size and trajectory. As of 29 January 2025, ESA estimates that the probability that asteroid 2024 YR4 could hit Earth on 22 December 2032 is 1.2%.
Scientists will meet soon to discuss Earth's response if the probability of an asteroid impact remains above the 1% threshold. The plan could include crashing a spacecraft into it to change its trajectory.
Last year, NASA's DART spacecraft conducted a test mission, demonstrating that a spacecraft could apply kinetic force to change the path of a space object.
On September 26, 2022, DART hit the asteroid Dimorphos, which was not on a collision course with Earth, at a speed of about 22,530 km/h at a distance of approximately 11 million km from Earth, and managed to modestly change its path.
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