“42 extra days of summer by 2100” - Today's heat patterns in Europe, like 6,000 years ago
European summers are getting longer and hotter. However, there has been “high uncertainty” about why this is happening. New research shows that heat patterns today resemble those of 6,000 years ago and could be a warning sign that more hot days are ahead.
For this study, published in Nature Communications, the team focused on an important source of climate history: mud. Sediments at the bottom of European lakes provide a framework for seasonal changes over the past 10,000 years.
The researchers assessed the temperature gradient between the Arctic and the equator. This gradient drives the weather in Europe, directing winds from the Atlantic Ocean towards the continent.
As the Arctic warms, the temperature difference between it and the equator decreases. As a result, air flows slow down, intensifying and prolonging summer weather phenomena such as heat waves. The summer season will also last longer.
According to the study, for every 1°C decrease in the temperature gradient, the summer season will be extended by about six days. This could lead to up to 42 additional summer days by 2100, if warming continues at the current rate. However, with the current trend of Arctic warming, Europe could experience up to eight months of summer weather by the end of the century. This situation is similar to conditions on the continent about 6,000 years ago, when the warm season lasted almost 200 days.
Although the temperature gradient has always existed, greenhouse gas emissions are accelerating the warming of the Arctic. The region is currently warming up to four times faster than the global average. “Our findings show that this is not just a modern phenomenon; it is a recurring feature of the Earth’s climate system. But what is changing now is the speed, cause and intensity of the change,” said one of the researchers.
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