Services and construction will "lead" until 2029/ As the main pillars of the economy are projected, public debt reaches 50.2%
The Albanian government predicts that all major sectors of the economy will continue to grow more or less at the same trend as their historical average for the period 2027-2029. Referring to the macroeconomic fiscal framework published in the Official Gazette, agriculture in particular is expected to grow by an average of about 0.2% per year in real terms during this period, contributing almost nothing to economic growth.
The industry is projected to have an average annual growth of about 2.6% and an average annual contribution of about 0.2%.
While, as with the current trend, construction and services are predicted to have the highest growth. Specifically, construction is projected to have an average annual growth of 3.1% and an average annual contribution of around 0.4%.
Services are projected to have the highest average annual growth among other sectors of about 5.4% and an average annual contribution of about 2.7%.
In line with medium-term growth forecasts, employment is expected to grow by an average of around 0.1% over the years 2027–2029. The higher labor force participation rate will be the main generator of labor supply growth, while negative demographic trends (observed for several years now) are expected to continue to have a tightening effect on both labor supply and aggregate employment numbers over the medium term.
During this period, the government aims to maintain fiscal consolidation, and this framework also aims to maintain a balanced and sustainable ratio of current and capital budget expenditures, where public investments for the period 2027-2029 will be targeted to be around 6.0 percent of GDP on average in each budget year. This also includes new public investments, which can be realized within the framework of the New Growth Plan implemented by the European Union. This level of capital expenditures clearly exceeds the overall fiscal deficit of the period, thus consistently targeting a positive current fiscal balance, in line with the “golden rule” of the budget.
This fiscal framework targets an overall fiscal deficit of 1.6 percent of GDP for 2027-2029. While gross public debt is expected to reach around 50.2 percent of GDP by 2029 from around 54.1 percent expected to result in 2025.
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