Integration and Prosperity - IMF: EU Membership Could Boost Per Capita Income Within a Decade
EU membership could boost per capita income in the Western Balkans and Moldova by up to 35% within a decade, according to the International Monetary Fund, which sees European integration as a major opportunity to accelerate economic growth.
Albania is among the most advanced countries in the region in the negotiation process. According to the IMF, Albania and Montenegro have opened all 33 negotiation chapters, while Montenegro has temporarily closed 16 of them.
According to the IMF study, the region's economies still have a large income gap with EU countries. If they had followed the growth rates of the countries that joined the Union earlier over the past decade, their incomes would have been about 16% higher on average.
EU membership could change this situation. The IMF estimates that GDP per capita could increase by 30 to 35% within ten years, based on the experience of previous enlargements.
The main benefit is expected to come from productivity gains, which could account for about two-thirds of overall income growth. Entry into the European single market would also create more opportunities for trade, financing, investment and technology transfer.
But the IMF stresses that membership in itself does not guarantee faster growth. Internal reforms, the rule of law, the fight against corruption and improving public administration will be crucial.
Even without membership, closing some of the gap with the best-performing European countries through reforms could boost the economies of the Western Balkans by around 10% in the medium term.
Another factor is European funds. The EU has earmarked €6 billion for reforms and growth in the Western Balkans for the period 2024–2027, while €1.9 billion is planned for Moldova for the years 2025–2027.
According to the IMF, the challenge for Albania and other countries in the region is to translate these funds and European market opportunities into investments, higher productivity, jobs, and sustainable income growth.
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