Olive oil, price drop is expected - Positive forecasts for the next year favor the normalization of the market
Spain's Deoleo, the world's largest olive oil producer, says one of the most challenging times in the industry's history appears to be coming to an end, with oil prices expected to halve from an all-time high over the next few months.
A prolonged period of climate change-driven extreme weather and drought in southern Europe has hit the olive crop hard in recent years, culminating in a skyrocketing price that has shocked industry veterans and consumers alike.
The shortage of olive oil, a staple of the Mediterranean diet, has pushed the industry into crisis mode, fueled fears of food insecurity and even caused a spike in crime in Spanish supermarkets.
Prices have since been reduced, as industry estimates point to significantly improved harvests in the 2024-2025 season, particularly in key producing countries such as Spain, Greece and Tunisia.
Deoleo, the producer of olive oil brands such as Bertolli and Carbonell, described the period as "one of the most difficult moments in the history of the sector" and called for a "profound transformation" of the industry.
Extra virgin olive oil prices in Spain's Andalusia stood at 6 euros per kilogram as of Nov. 6, according to Expana, an agricultural and food market intelligence firm. This is about 19% less on a monthly basis and almost 35% off the record of 9.2 euros in January.
Spain accounts for more than 40% of the world's olive oil production, making it a global reference for prices.
Deoleo said olive oil prices were expected to fall to around 5 euros a litre, a sharp drop from the 9 to 10 euros they were earlier, a figure that had become the norm in Spanish supermarkets this year.
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