Political tensions "threaten" energy exports - France's production decline could raise costs for the European market
The fall of the French government could have major consequences for energy markets in Europe and raise regional electricity costs. France is by far the largest exporter of electricity in Europe, with approximately 60% of net exports so far in 2024.
French electricity exports this year have provided neighbors with critical supplies of cheap and clean energy, while the region remains hampered by high energy costs and weak economic growth. But France's political tensions now call into question whether the country can sustain high levels of production and exports.
French utility EDF is closely linked to the country's political system, as the company came under government control in 2022 after accumulating debts of around $10 billion. EDF runs the country's nuclear power fleet, which supplies around 70% of France's electricity. However, the company's massive pile of debt has added to the government's own growing debt obligations.
The relatively low cost of French nuclear production has allowed the country to enjoy much lower energy prices than its neighbors and the means to export surplus electricity to interconnected markets. So far in 2024, wholesale energy prices in France have averaged about 25% less than those in Germany and the Netherlands and 45% less than those in Italy, according to the London Stock Exchange Group.
This cost differentiation has motivated French energy traders to export excess supplies at a tidy profit. However, any forced cuts in domestic power production linked to budget tensions could quickly limit electricity exports. And no other nation is able to replace France's electricity supplies at such a low cost.
During the first eleven months of 2024, France exported nearly 84 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity to neighboring countries, according to Energy-charts.info. This export ratio was 85% more than during the same period in 2023, and the highest since 2015.
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