The government of France falls - What happens now?!
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier's government fell on Wednesday after a no-confidence vote in the National Assembly (the lower house of parliament). The left-wing NFP coalition and the far-right Rally National (RN) party cast their votes en masse against the former chief Brexit negotiator after Barnier used Article 49.3 of the Constitution to push through the 2025 social security budget plan without a parliamentary vote.
Michel Barnier is likely to be asked to stay on as a caretaker government, as former prime minister Gabriel Attal did this summer after French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly following his party's crushing defeat in EU elections. The interim government will have to fast-track current affairs and cannot vote on new laws.
It is up to Macron to appoint a new prime minister and he has no specific deadline. The President has expressed his intention to act quickly, within the next 24 hours. The Elysée has also confirmed a televised speech for Thursday at 20:00 local time. However, choosing a new prime minister will be complex as the current National Assembly, formed after the last election, is more fragmented than ever and lacks a clear majority.
It took the head of state just two months this summer to choose a name he was confident would not be automatically shut down by MPs. New legislative elections can only be called next July.
Who can be the next prime minister?
Several names have floated since Wednesday, including the current Minister of the Armed Forces, Sébastien Lecornu, or François Bayrou, head of the centrist MoDem party. Several parties forming the left-wing NFP coalition have stuck with their initial choice of Lucie Castets, an economist and civil servant.
Castets, whose name was first proposed this summer by the NFP and quickly shut down by Macron, said on Tuesday that she was "prepared to govern". Macron was heavily criticized for taking on the sole role of finding a name this summer and not allowing political parties to get involved. But for Emmanuel Rivière, an expert in public opinion and political consultant, the choice of the next prime minister should be centered around a project and not a specific personality.
What's next for Macron?
Although Macron's presidential term runs until the spring of 2027, some parties are calling for the head of state to resign over the political chaos that has followed his decision to dissolve parliament. This is another blow to Macron, whose position has sunk at home and abroad due to the political crisis.
Only 22% of French are satisfied with Macron, according to an opinion poll published in late November by Ifop. Macron has so far responded to these demands by vowing to fulfill his role "with all my energy, until the last second".
What about the budget?
If the budget is not voted on by December 20, the government can use its constitutional powers to approve the budget by ordinance. In the case of the social security budget, the ordinance can be implemented after 50 days of deadlock, while the national budget can be implemented after 70 days of debate.
Another law could also extend the 2024 budget to 2025, but this is only a temporary solution. While France is not at risk of a US-style shutdown, political instability could spook investors. France is currently under pressure from the EU over its spending. The country's deficit is estimated at 6% of its GDP when EU fiscal rules require it to remain below the 3% threshold.
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