Why is the new French prime minister fighting to stay in his post?!
The biggest day of François Bayrou's decade-long political career has arrived. The fate of his government rests in the hands of French lawmakers as they vote Wednesday on the first of several no-confidence motions expected to be brought against the centrist prime minister. It's been just two months since they ousted his predecessor.
If he falls, Bayrou would earn the ignominious distinction of being the shortest-lived prime minister in modern French history. It would also leave the country without a budget at a time when investors are questioning whether France can credibly repay its debts. And it would exacerbate fears that Europe’s second-largest economy has become ungovernable, just as Germany’s economy is stuck in neutral and the continent faces a potential trade war with the United States.
Bayrou is widely seen as President Emmanuel Macron's last hope for finding a solution to France's political crisis. The 73-year-old has been at the center of French politics for a generation, a respected heavyweight with a history of working with politicians from across France's fractured political landscape. Wednesday's vote will be the highest-profile test of his political acumen, and the stakes could not be higher.
Wednesday's vote in the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament, comes after Bayrou used a constitutional maneuver to approve parts of his 2025 spending plans without a vote. However, the measure, article 49.3 of the constitution, allows lawmakers to respond by filing no-confidence motions.
Bayrou's minority government, which is expected to use 'Article 49.3' four times to pass its budget, is supported by a loose coalition of centrist and conservative politicians. To survive all those no-confidence votes, part of the opposition would need to abstain from voting to censure the government.
But Bayrou's future may be determined by the changing political winds in France, not by anything he has done. Since Barnier's fall in December, public opinion in favor of toppling the government has fallen, recent polls show.
Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally party will decide whether to grant Bayrou a last-minute stay of execution. On Tuesday, the party's president, Jordan Bardella, said he believed it was important to "avoid uncertainty" that could have "serious consequences for the economy."
All eyes are on Socialist lawmakers, as Bayrou has targeted the Socialists as a potential opposition partner. Although the party has voiced its opposition to Bayrou's proposed 53 billion euros in tax increases and spending cuts, it has vowed not to defeat him on the budget.
The price the prime minister paid was high: Bayrou agreed to reopen talks on Macron’s major pension reform, albeit in a limited way, and scrapped some spending cuts. But whether the entire Socialist Party will fall in line is an open question. Last month, eight Socialist lawmakers broke ranks and voted with their leftist allies to oust Bayrou.
Then there is the fact that Wednesday's no-confidence motion is just one front in the battle that Bayrou must win in the coming days.
Overturning the plot
In a strange turn of events, the Socialists have tabled their own motion of censure over what they believe is Bayrou's refusal to uphold "republican values" a blow to the prime minister over controversial comments he made on immigration last week.
While the National Rally is unlikely to vote on a measure criticizing comments on immigration that align with far-right rhetoric, the party is not ruling it out in principle. The National Rally would have no qualms about voting for a no-confidence motion even if it disagrees with its wording, a person close to Le Pen, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the party’s strategy, told POLITICO.
If Bayrou overcomes these hurdles, he may be able to help open up the French political landscape, which has been deeply divided between the far right; centrists and conservatives stuck in a marriage of convenience; and the New Popular Front, an alliance of parties on the left that came together during snap elections hastily called by Macron last year.
By siding with the Socialists, Bayrou would create a major rift between the center-left party and its partners in the hard-left France Unbowed party. France Unbowed’s fiery leader, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and his allies have repeatedly criticized the Socialists for their negotiations with the government. Mélenchon said Tuesday that if the Socialists refuse to vote to censure the government on Wednesday over its budget plans, there would be no room for the party within the New Popular Front.
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