EU population hits record high - forecast to reach 453.3 million in 2029, before starting to shrink
At 450.6 million, the European Union's population is approaching its estimated peak before falling again, according to projections, as highlighted in a report on the major challenges posed by the ageing of the European population.
According to the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (Centre commun de recherche), the number of Europeans will increase slightly until 2029 to reach 453.3 million inhabitants, before starting to fall slowly but steadily. By 2050, Europe is estimated to have a population of 445 million, then, by 2100, 398.8 million, reaching the level of the mid-1970s.
At the same time, Europeans are living longer than ever before. Life expectancy reached 81.5 years in 2024, thanks to advances in medicine and better living conditions. By 2050, almost one in three European Union residents will be 65 or older, compared to one in five today.
By 2100, life expectancy could exceed 90 years for women and 86 for men. A child born in the European Union in 2023 could live up to 75.3 years without serious illness. These developments bring with them consequences: labor shortages, pressure on public finances, strains on health, education and training systems, as well as territorial cohesion, the European Union acknowledges.
Improving productivity and reducing unemployment will be essential to offset the effects of the decline in the working-age population, the EU insists. Today, around 20% of people of working age are outside the labour market. The employment gap between women and men remains at 10 percentage points, while 8 million young people are not working, studying or participating in any education or training program.
The report notes that migration “plays an ever-increasing role in population growth, partially offsetting the negative effects of population ageing and a shrinking workforce, but without being able to significantly change the EU’s demographic trajectory.”
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