6 million Italians, soon to retire - Alarm for the government. What does it mean for employees and the state coffers?
Italy is facing a demographic transformation that will profoundly affect its future. The alarm raised by INAPP (National Institute for the Analysis of Public Policies) is more than just a statistic: by 2033, an entire generation will have retired. This mass exodus of approximately six million people is not an isolated event, but the impetus that is pushing the entire social welfare system to the breaking point. Understanding this phenomenon means understanding the fate of the Italian economy, the quality of public services and, ultimately, how much pensions will be.
The analysis shows the structural fragility of the Italian pension system. According to the document, 6.1 million people will leave their jobs in Italy over the next ten years and there are not enough young people to replace them, describing the phenomenon as a "generational exodus".
The data is alarming: the Italian working-age population will decrease by more than a third by 2060. The consequences are already visible, with companies struggling to find staff and pension spending expected to rise to 17% of GDP by 2040. Furthermore, over 4 million people over 65 require ongoing care, yet only a small percentage are cared for in appropriate facilities.
This imbalance in the ratio of workers to pensioners is severely testing the fundamental framework of the Italian social system, based on the "pay-as-you-go" principle, where contributions from active workers finance the pensions of retired workers.
The scenario for the state coffers: a welfare system at risk. The first and most immediate scenario is that of public spending becoming unsustainable. With fewer people working and therefore fewer paying contributions, the state will have to find the funds needed to pay pensions elsewhere. The consequences, unfortunately, are clear and direct. Social security spending, which already represents a large part of the budget, will absorb resources that could be allocated to other key sectors. This could translate into an increase in the tax burden on citizens and businesses, but also into drastic cuts to essential services such as healthcare, education and transport. The risk is a general impoverishment of the welfare system, which will no longer be able to guarantee the same quality standards for everyone.
The scenario for today's workers, a pension that no longer exists. The shock waves of change will hit today's workers hard. The contributory system, which links pension benefits to the total contributions paid, makes pensions vulnerable to the realities of the labour market. Careers are increasingly "liquid", characterised by periods of precarious employment, on-call work and unemployment.
But what needs to be done to save the system? Faced with these scenarios, standing idly by is not an option. Solutions must be immediate and effective, both at the public and individual levels. INAPP proposes action on many fronts. The first step is to bring new resources into the labor market, given that the untapped potential of women and regular immigrants, whose contributions are vital to the future of the system, is extraordinary.
Added to this is the need for today's workers to take on individual responsibility. With an increasingly strained public system, securing supplementary pensions is no longer optional, but a necessity to ensure a peaceful future. Membership in a pension fund is the only way to supplement the state pension and ensure a dignified retirement.
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