Will 2026 be the second warmest year on record? Strong El Niño will make 2 degrees Celsius warmer, experts say
The first three months of 2026 were the fourth warmest on record, despite weak La Niña conditions that suppressed temperatures. The start of the year has also seen record low sea ice coverage in the Arctic. Now, scientists expect the warming El Niño event, which is forecast to arrive in early fall, to be particularly strong.
According to experts, this means that 2026 has a 19% chance of surpassing 2024 as the warmest year on record. Based on temperature data from five different research groups, the environmental news and analysis website Carbon Brief predicts that 2026 is virtually certain to be one of the four warmest years on record — and could be the second warmest on record.
Global temperatures are expected to rise throughout the year, especially as autumn could see the arrival of a “super” El Niño. The warming phenomenon in the tropical Pacific shapes global weather patterns and can cause droughts, floods and marine heatwaves.
The most common method for predicting the nature of the conditions is by measuring the temperature anomaly in the 'Niño3.4' region of the tropical Pacific. Sustained sea surface temperatures above 0.5°C indicate an El Niño event, temperatures above 1.5°C represent a strong El Niño event, and temperatures above 2°C are often called a 'super' El Niño event.
Carbon Brief says the latest climate models give an average warming estimate of 2.2°C by September – a scenario that would put the world in “super” El Niño territory.
Warming is expected to increase after September, as El Niño conditions generally peak between November and January. If a super-event occurs, it would “significantly increase the likelihood that 2027 will be the warmest year on record,” according to Carbon Brief.
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