Poor countries are threatened by hunger due to rising food prices due to the climate crisis
Food price increases caused by climate change could lead to more malnutrition, political and social unrest, as the world's poorest are hit by shortages of basic foodstuffs.
New research links price increases for potatoes in the UK, cabbages in South Korea, onions in India and cocoa in Ghana last year to weather extremes that “exceeded all historical precedents before 2020.” Such price increases not only affect local food security and health, especially for the poorest in society, but have knock-on effects around the world.
Unprecedented monthly temperatures in February 2024 following drought in late 2023 and early 2024 in Ghana and Ivory Coast, where 60% of the world's cocoa is grown, led to a 300% increase in global prices for this commodity.
The high price of basic products could have an impact on public health, as low-income households reduce their consumption of expensive fruit and vegetables, according to the report by a team including the UK's Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), the European Central Bank (ECB), the Food Foundation, the Barcelona Supercomputing Centre and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
The study looked at examples in 18 countries between 2022 and 2024, where price increases were associated with heat, drought and heavy rainfall.
The study found that food price increases can have a wider economic impact, making it harder for economies to keep inflation low and thus lower interest rates. A hot and dry spring in the UK this year, for example, partly caused unexpectedly high inflation figures, reducing expectations for further interest rate cuts this summer.
The report also suggests that “high inflation rates can directly alter election outcomes in modern democracies.” For example, people in Mozambique took to the streets when the price of bread rose sharply after extreme heat in Russia, a major grain producer, prompted the country to block exports to protect scarce supplies in 2010, meaning the price of grain rose globally.
The research is published ahead of the UN Food Systems Summit to be held on July 27, where world leaders will meet to discuss threats to the global food system.
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