How much will the conflict affect the global economy? - OECD: It is expected to slow down by 0.4% in 2026
Escalating conflict in the Middle East has pulled the global economy off a stronger growth path, the OECD warned, while a near-total disruption to energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz threatens to sharply increase inflation.
The Paris-based Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said the global economy had been on track for stronger-than-expected growth before the Iran war broke out, but that prospect has now almost completely disappeared.
Global GDP growth is forecast to slow from 3.3% last year to 2.9% in 2026, before reaching 3% in 2027, as a rise in energy prices and the unpredictable nature of conflict offset headwinds from strong technology-related investments, lower effective tariff rates and momentum carried over from 2025.
The projections in the OECD's Interim Economic Outlook are conditioned by a technical assumption that energy market disruptions ease over time, with oil, gas and fertilizer prices gradually falling from mid-2026 onwards.
The forecast for 2026 is unchanged from the OECD's December forecast, but preliminary indications back then had suggested that global GDP growth could have been revised upwards by about 0.3 percentage points in 2026 had the conflict not escalated, a revision that has been completely erased by the impact of the fighting.
With energy prices now on the rise, G20 inflation is forecast to be 1.2 percentage points higher than previously expected in 2026, at 4.0%, before easing to 2.7% in 2027.
In an adverse scenario, in which energy prices peak and stay high for a longer time, global growth would be 0.5 percentage points lower by the second year of the shock and inflation would be 0.9 percentage points higher, the OECD said.
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