Bota Posted on 2026-05-26 10:36:00

The great danger of the Strait of Hormuz / Over 1,500 commercial ships blocked since the beginning of the war

From Dorian Koça

The great danger of the Strait of Hormuz / Over 1,500 commercial ships blocked

More than 1,500 commercial ships have been stranded in the Persian Gulf for three months since the start of the Iran war, and managing them will be one of the key challenges when and if there is an agreement between Washington and Tehran to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Initial estimates suggest that traffic could return to only half of normal levels within the first month after a mutually acceptable solution is found. Other estimates suggest that it could take four to seven weeks for shipping to return to normal, barring any further disruptions. These estimates were provided to The New York Times by shipping executives and industry intelligence firms.

Analysts say it will take at least 30 to 45 days for shipping flows in the region to return to normal, even if everything goes according to plan. Executives at shipping data provider Kpler believe that even if a smooth process for shipping can be established, traffic could only recover to 40 or 50% of normal levels over three to four weeks. Analysts also believe that the most likely scenario is not that there will be a full opening of the Strait of Hormuz immediately, but that ships will be able to move through it with restrictions. They will have limited routes, higher insurance costs for the risk of war and longer waiting times.

All this while Iran's Foreign Ministry said on Monday that Tehran collects fees for "navigation services" from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, but does not impose taxes.

Last week, Iran published a map claiming control over a section of the Strait of Hormuz that lies deep in the territorial waters of the United Arab Emirates and Oman. This prompted five Gulf countries to formally warn shipping companies through the International Maritime Organization (IMO) not to comply with Iran's demands.

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