"Fall in supply and shrinking demand" - International Energy Agency, gloomy forecasts for oil
Global oil supply will shrink this year as the war in the Middle East disrupts supply chains and demand will shrink, the International Energy Agency said.
The outlook from the Paris-based agency, which advises industrialized countries, shows how deeply the conflict has reshaped the oil market, overturning previous expectations of a sizeable surplus by 2026. Oil prices have risen sharply, putting pressure on consumers and prompting governments to introduce fuel-saving measures.
Supply will fall by 1.5 million barrels per day this year, the IEA said in its monthly market report, as attacks on energy assets in the Middle East and Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz hit production and exports. That's equivalent to about 1.5% of global demand.
In its March report, the IEA called the Middle East war the biggest oil supply disruption ever and now sees a more significant decline in demand. The Iran war has “completely upended the global outlook for oil consumption,” it said, now projecting a drop of 80,000 barrels per day in demand growth this year, down from a rise of 640,000 barrels per day in March.
“Resumption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains the most important variable in easing pressure on energy supplies, prices and the global economy,” the agency said. Oil prices fell sharply on Tuesday. Brent futures traded just below $99 a barrel, down 0.6%.
In the short term, the IEA expects supply losses to deepen. Attacks on energy assets and the effective closure of Hormuz led to a loss of 10.1 million barrels per day of supply in March, the agency said, which could deepen by another 2.9 million barrels per day this month.
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