Global food price hike expected - Oxford Economics forecast. War and heatwaves impact
Global food prices are expected to rise by 11.8% this year and 4.8% in 2027, with the heaviest impact expected to be on cereals, fruits and vegetables and dairy products, according to Oxford Economics. The forecast comes at a time when extreme heat and drought in Europe have damaged crops, while farmers are also facing high energy and fertilizer prices, exacerbated by wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.
Following the heatwave in Europe, Coceral, the Brussels-based European cereals and oilseeds trade association, issued a dramatic update in July, cutting its forecast for the combined EU-27 and UK cereals harvest from 295.5 million tonnes to 286.6 million tonnes. This compares with 310 million tonnes harvested in 2025.
Oxford Economics says the most significant impact on global food prices stems from “the US-Iran war and its impact on food production inputs, mainly oil (petroleum), natural gas and fertilizers.” Oxford Economics said global oil prices rose 36% year-on-year in July, driven in part by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, while fertilizer prices are forecast to rise 22% this year.
At the same time, the war in Ukraine is also having a significant impact on global food prices. Cereals account for 25% of the global food price index and the two countries “together account for just under 30% of total global wheat exports and over 10% of corn.”
Attacks on Russian and Ukrainian ports, loading terminals and ships, as well as disruption of grain exports in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, could affect 86 million tonnes of annual grain export capacity - 52 million tonnes from Russia and 34 million tonnes from Ukraine - equivalent to almost 17% of global grain exports, according to the report. According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, global food commodity prices were 1% higher in July than a year earlier, with grain prices rising by 6.9% and vegetable oil prices rising by approximately 17.3%.
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