Sugar prices expected to fall in 2025 - India, the no. 2 in the world, predicts record growth in production
India is expected to produce a record amount of sugar in the next selling season as millions of farmers expanded sugarcane cultivation, encouraged by abundant water supplies and falling prices of competing crops.
The output boost would allow the world's second-biggest sugar producer to resume exports in 2025/26, after a lack of yield from rain led to two years of restrictions. Indian exports could undercut global sugar prices, traders said, boosting supplies on the world market at a time when dry weather is widely expected to reduce shipments from top producer Brazil.
"Last year, we could not plant sugarcane because water was not available for irrigation. This year, we have abundant water thanks to abundant rainfall," the farmers said.
Reservoirs in Maharashtra and Karnataka, which together provide water for nearly half of India's sugar production, are holding significantly more water than they did in 2023, government data showed.
India's annual monsoon rains are crucial in determining the plantation area for water-intensive sugarcane crops. This year, the cane growing regions of Maharashtra and Karnataka recorded up to 39% more rainfall than average. "These data are setting the stage for a record production harvest next season," experts say.
Sugar production in the country in the current season is expected to fall to 28 million metric tons, from 31.9 million tons last year and below the annual consumption of about 29.6 million tons, the federation estimates.
Increased sugarcane planting will enable India to export 3 to 5 million tonnes of sugar next season, provided the weather remains favorable and there are no major pest infestations. India was the world's No. 2 exporter over the five years to 2022/2023, with volumes averaging 6.8 million tonnes per year.
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