EU's $750 billion pledge/Can the bloc buy more American energy?
The European Union has pledged to buy $250 billion worth of energy supplies from the United States each year, including oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and nuclear technology, as part of a framework trade agreement with the U.S. However, experts estimate that the $750 billion target over three years is unattainable, as it would require redirecting a large portion of U.S. energy exports to Europe.
According to the US Energy Information Administration, total US energy exports were $318 billion in 2024, while the EU imported only $76 billion of this. To reach the goal, European imports would have to triple, something that is considered unfeasible. Experts explain that US oil flows would have to be completely redirected to the EU, or the value of LNG imports would have to increase by up to sixfold.
Demand for U.S. energy exports is strong from other countries that have also pledged large purchases through trade deals. This could push up U.S. base oil and gas prices and push U.S. producers to favor exports over domestic supply, a scenario that could pose political and economic challenges for European and U.S. leaders.
A senior EU official stressed that the $250 billion per year target was based on an assessment of the EU's capacity to cope with US energy, but realization would depend on major investments in oil and LNG infrastructure, import logistics and maritime transport capacity.
Currently, the United States is the EU's main LNG supplier, providing 44% of its demand and 15.4% of its total oil needs in 2024. But experts predict that to achieve the target, tremendous investments in production and delivery would be needed, exceeding even plans by 2030.
The EU's decision to end Russian energy imports by 2028 could spur increased purchases from the US. However, forecasts show that European oil demand is expected to fall due to the transition to clean energy, which could make the $750 billion target more unlikely.
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