OPEC+, towards suspending production growth/ Decision-making for 2027, depending on supply from the Strait of Hormuz
OPEC+, which consists of OPEC members and other allies led by Russia, is likely to halt production increases starting in October as it faces potentially difficult talks on new production quotas. The decision translates into about 2 million fewer barrels per day to be shared among all OPEC+ countries until the group decides how to distribute the extra supply among its members.
The debate is complicated by competing demands for higher quotas and disruptions caused by the Iran war, which have significantly reduced the effective capacity of the producer group. “Regarding future production levels, much depends on how the conflict in the Middle East develops,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS. “Also, the group is going through a process of defining maximum production capacity levels for all member states. This will probably set the stage for further production adjustments,” he added.
Seven major OPEC+ members, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman, at a meeting expected to take place on August 2, are likely to increase their production target by about 188,000 barrels per day for September, the same as for June, July and August, OPEC+ sources told Reuters.
However, quota increases this year have remained largely on paper, as the war in Iran forced Middle Eastern countries to reduce oil exports. OPEC+'s production policies for 2027 are likely to be influenced by a number of factors, both domestic and external.
At the same time, OPEC+ is conducting a review of its member countries’ oil production capacities, which will serve to determine the baseline production levels for 2027, on which each country’s quotas will then be set. According to one of the sources, the group needs to complete this process before deciding on the next steps. Some members of the group, including Iraq, are pushing for higher individual quotas to reflect higher capacity. Another important factor is the oil market outlook for 2027, as the International Energy Agency expects a significant surplus, depending on the performance of supply through the Strait of Hormuz.
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