Another tough year for global trade? - According to experts, 2026 will be the year of the consequences of tariffs
The global trading system, which is ending one of its most transformative years of the last century, is heading into another one, facing more challenges to stability and growth.
Global goods trade held up relatively well through 2025, even as U.S. President Donald Trump began erecting a tariff wall around the world's largest economy. Data showed global container volumes rose 2.1% in October from a year earlier.
But if 2025 was the year of the tariffs, then 2026 will be the year of their consequences. Experts have said they predict more trade unrest in the coming year.
The US, Canada and Mexico are ready to begin reviewing the North American Free Trade Agreement that went into effect in 2020. The negotiations will take the three countries into "new territory" given the novelty of the provision that allows for an update after just six years.
For container ships and other global trading companies, the coming year could bring two shocks that seem like welcome developments but could actually disrupt global supply chains in ways seen during the Covid pandemic.
According to experts, the first change would be a return of the world's cargo fleet to using the Red Sea, instead of the longer route around southern Africa that ships have been reluctant to use for the past two years. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have largely subsided since the Gaza peace plan took effect in October, making the old route more attractive.
But a full return to the Red Sea and the short Suez Canal route between Asia and Europe would “flood the market with far more capacity” and create “massive port congestion problems in Europe.”
Among the biggest unknowns in trade circles heading into 2026 is an expected U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the legality of Trump's so-called reciprocal tariffs.
If the president loses the case, one of the most important questions for the country's economy and fiscal outlook will be whether the government will have to refund the money that American importers paid in tariffs. It's not clear that this will happen in a quick or orderly manner.
Betting markets give about a 75% chance of a Trump defeat, meaning the administration will have to use other authorities at the president's disposal to impose tariffs.
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