Oil price could exceed $120/barrel - Goldman Sachs forecast if tension in Hormuz continues
According to an estimate by Goldman Sachs, the price of Brent crude oil could exceed $120 per barrel by the fourth quarter of the year if unrest in the Strait of Hormuz continues. However, the bank clarifies that this is not its base case.
Tensions in the Middle East and the reduction of oil flows in the Persian Gulf to below 45% of pre-war levels have pushed oil prices higher again. Geopolitical uncertainty remains a key factor in the path of prices.
Goldman Sachs' base case sees Brent at $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 next year. That will depend largely on a reduction in tensions in the region. Analysts say risks to the outlook are "skewed to the upside" due to ongoing shipping problems in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.
Concerns about a potential conflict between the US and Iran intensified, while threats from Yemen's Houthi rebels, backed by Tehran, to block shipments from Saudi Arabia added pressure on markets.
The Red Sea waterways are considered critical for transporting oil and LNG cargoes that would otherwise be stranded in the Strait of Hormuz. Their potential disruption is causing great concern in energy circles.
Brent crude futures are currently trading above $88 a barrel, down from $126 and above in late April during the initial phase of the US-Iran crisis. Analysts do not rule out a return to these levels if tensions do not ease.
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