Global Crude Oil Exports Fall as Trade Routes Realign Again!
The volume of global crude oil exports in 2024 fell 2%, the first drop since the COVID-19 pandemic, shipping data showed, due to weak demand growth and as refinery and pipeline changes rearranged routes commercial.
Global crude oil flows have been rocked for a second year by war in Ukraine and the Middle East, with tanker shipments redirected and suppliers and buyers split regionally. Middle Eastern oil exports to Europe fell and more US and South American oil went to Europe. Russian oil that used to go to Europe has been redirected to India and China.
These shifts have become more pronounced as oil refineries have been shut down in Europe amid ongoing attacks on ships in the Red Sea. Middle East crude oil exports to Europe fell 22% in 2024, ship tracking data from researcher Kpler showed.
The shift in oil flows "is creating opportunistic alliances," said Adi Imsirovic, an energy consultant and former oil trader, citing closer ties between Russia and India, China and Iran that are reshaping the oil trade.
"Oil is no longer flowing along the lowest cost curve and the first consequence is tight shipping, which increases commodity prices and ultimately reduces refining margins," Imsirovic said.
The US with its growing shale production has been a winner in the global oil trade. The country exports 4 million barrels per day, increasing its share of global oil trade to 9.5%, behind Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Trade routes have also been reshuffled by the start-up of the massive Dangote oil refinery in Nigeria, the expansion of Canada's Trans Mountain pipeline to the country's west coast, a drop in oil production in Mexico, a brief ban on Libyan oil exports and increased volumes. of Guyana.
In 2025, suppliers will continue to face declining fuel demand in major consumption centers such as China. Also, more countries will use less oil and more gas, while renewable energy will continue to grow.
"This kind of uncertainty and volatility is the new normal - 2019 was the last 'normal' year," said Erik Broekhuizen, a maritime research and advisory manager at shipbroking firm Poten & Partners.
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