The war in Iran "crushes" the American consumer - Confidence falls to a historic low in April, inflation rises
Consumer confidence in the United States fell to a record low in April, as fears about rising energy prices and the impact of war in Iran increased, according to a University of Michigan survey.
The university's main index of consumer sentiment fell to 47.6 points, down 10.7% from the March survey and touching its lowest level ever. The indices for current conditions and expectations also recorded double-digit declines.
The decline in sentiment coincides with a significant increase in inflation expectations, with respondents facing a 4.8% increase in prices within a year.
The survey shows that many consumers blame the conflict in Iran for adverse changes in the economy, said the survey’s director, Joanne Hsu. However, she noted that most of the interviews were conducted before the April 7 ceasefire, meaning the survey reflects conditions during March. “Economic expectations are likely to improve as consumers gain confidence that supply disruptions stemming from the Iran conflict have eased and gas prices have stabilized,” she said.
The release of the survey came shortly after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the consumer price index for all items rose 0.9% in March, bringing the annual inflation rate to 3.3%. Most of the inflation increase was driven by rising energy prices, while food prices changed minimally.
Inflation expectations in the five-year window in the University of Michigan survey also moved higher, to 3.4%, a monthly increase of 0.2 percentage points, although one percentage point below the level a year ago. Longer-term inflation expectations also rose to 3.4%, a monthly increase of 0.2 percentage points.
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