Switzerland's economy shrank for the first time in 2 years - 0.5% drop reflects impact of US tariffs before deal

The Swiss economy shrank in the third quarter for the first time in more than two years, highlighting the impact that high U.S. tariffs had before officials secured a trade deal last week.
Gross domestic product shrank 0.5% from the previous three months, according to the government's first estimate. That compares with a 0.1% increase in the April-June period and is much weaker than the 0.1% decline forecast by economists in a Bloomberg survey.
“Driven by a sharp decline in value added in the chemical and pharmaceutical sectors, industry as a whole recorded negative growth,” the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs said. “The services sector expanded at a below-average pace.”
This was only the second quarter of contraction the country has seen since the Covid pandemic, but it still performed better than many of its European neighbors. But 39% US tariffs, imposed in early August, have significantly hurt the export-oriented economy. Following the deal that reduced duties to 15%, a rapid recovery in growth is considered possible.
The agreement brings particular relief to Swiss watchmakers, carmakers and precision instruments. Along with food and chemical producers, they were hit hardest by the 39% tariff, according to the Swiss central bank. Other key exports, such as medicines and gold, have been and remain exempt from tariffs under various regimes applied by the United States.
Economists have raised their forecasts for Switzerland after the deal. The pact almost halve the expected impact on exports to the US. The breakthrough also gives Switzerland a competitive advantage over other countries, lowering the average tariff rate on all its sales to the US below that of the EU and the UK.
Exporters are also facing the brunt of a strong franc, which rose to a decade-high against the euro after the deal was reached. The strengthening currency could push the Swiss National Bank to return to negative interest rates, having already cut its key rate to zero. However, a separate Bloomberg survey showed that most economists expect rates to remain unchanged until 2027.
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