EU economy 'resists' US tariffs - 1.4% growth forecast. Spain and Poland lead the bloc
The EU economy is expected to expand by 1.4 percent this year, driven mainly by growth in Poland and Spain. The data comes from the European Commission's forecasts. Performing better than most member states, Warsaw and Madrid are expected to grow by 3.2 percent and 2.9 percent respectively in 2025.
The EU's economic forecast is a slight improvement on last spring's forecast of 1.1 percent. The commission expects the bloc's economy to continue expanding by 1.4 percent next year, despite the 15 percent tariffs that the United States has imposed on European exports. The unemployment rate is also expected to remain below 6 percent until 2027, while inflation will fall to 2.2 percent over the same period.
“Given the difficult external context, the EU must act decisively to boost internal growth, through simplification of regulations, the single market and increased innovation,” a senior official stressed.
Countries that once emerged as the main causes of the eurozone crisis, such as Portugal, Greece, Cyprus, Ireland and Spain, are expected to perform better than Germany, Finland and Austria, which were once considered economic models.
In a worrying sign for Europe, the three largest economies, Germany, France and Italy, are set to experience weak growth over the coming years. Once the engine of European growth, Berlin is likely to expand by just 0.2 percent in 2025 and 1.2 percent in 2026 and 2027.
Italy is expected to grow at an even slower pace, 0.4 percent in 2025 and 0.8 percent in the next two years, despite being the main beneficiary of the EU's post-COVID recovery program.
On the other hand, southern and eastern countries recorded positive results, with Malta expanding by 4%, Bulgaria by 3%, Lithuania by 2.4% and Croatia by 3.2%.
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