Scan Life Posted on 2024-12-11 10:40:00

2025, the year of the "growth" of AI? - Dilemmas and expectations of analysts on the evolution of new technology

From Kristi Ceta

2025, the year of the "growth" of AI? - Dilemmas and expectations of

Silicon Valley says that 2025 is the year when artificial intelligence will grow and become "ready for work". Technology leaders envision autonomous digital workers that can perform their own tasks. But Wall Street analysts are skeptical about the results of this trillion-dollar bet.

On one side are optimistic tech leaders who say we're entering an "age of agency," in which autonomous workers will unlock "massive capacity" and fundamentally redefine the concept of work. On the other hand, Goldman Sachs warns that large investments can bring surprisingly modest rewards, as the technology is not yet capable of solving the complex problems needed to justify such a massive investment.

The gulf between these viewpoints could not be wider. Optimists envision AI agents working independently alongside humans, handling everything from customer service to inventory management without human intervention. According to them, these digital workers will drive unprecedented productivity gains and increases in Gross Domestic Product, creating far more jobs than they will fill.

But Goldman analysts argue that unlike transformative technologies of the past, such as e-commerce, which immediately offered cheaper solutions to existing problems, artificial intelligence remains prohibitively expensive while still struggling to effectively handle basic tasks. The firm estimates that over the next decade, this technology could increase US productivity by just 0.5% and GDP by less than 1%.

The reality is likely to lie somewhere between these extremes, according to industry analysts who study the evolution of this sector. They see 2025 as a key but also challenging year for AI agents. Unlike chatbots or assistants that simply answer questions, agents promise to actively perform tasks and make decisions.

According to research, about one-third of enterprise software applications will include some form of agent by 2028, up from less than 1% today. Also, at least 15% of daily work decisions will be made autonomously by artificial agents by 2028, compared to zero today.

 

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