Projections/ How many immigrants can vote in the May 11 elections? So far, the figures speak of around 111 thousand applications and 64 thousand approvals
In many countries, diaspora voter turnout is generally lower than that of domestic voters, largely due to logistical challenges such as time differences, the cost of voting, lack of access, lack of information, and a sense of disconnection from local politics. Diaspora turnout is often estimated to average between 10% and 30% in countries with well-established diaspora voting systems.
Globally, diaspora participation in elections is still relatively low, but countries that actively engage their diaspora with easy-to-vote mechanisms may see higher levels of participation.
In Greece, estimates of diaspora participation range around 10-20%.
But what is the expected participation of the Albanian diaspora in the 2025 parliamentary elections?
According to CEC data, as of the morning of January 31, about 111,000 individuals had applied, and about 65,000 of these applications were approved with valid ID, or 58.5% of the total applications. The majority of them are men, with a share of 60.2%.
According to the "Scan Intel" analysis, if we take for granted that the Albanian diaspora is estimated at around 1.7 million individuals and that around 1.4 of them have the right to vote, we can say that the participation from the figures we have so far can be estimated at around 5%.
Meanwhile, if we consider the number of requests so far and not those that have been approved, we can say that participation can be estimated at around 8%.
Scan Intel a few days ago predicted that the total number of applications would reach around 275,000 by March 4, based on the pace of registrations so far. If we take this figure for granted, we can say that voter turnout could reach up to 20%, a fairly high figure and close to the average of countries that have consolidated diaspora voting systems.
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