Drought threatens olive oil - In Spain, production is falling, while prices are rising
Olive oil, known as the "liquid gold" of the Mediterranean diet, is once again at the center of concern. In Spain, which produces almost 50% of the world's total, producers are talking about a crisis. After two bad years, hopes for a recovery are fading under the weight of drought and prolonged heat waves.
Spring rains had raised expectations for a good year, with production close to 1.45 million tons. But the reality of autumn is different: high temperatures, minimal rainfall, scorched soil. Dcoop, the world's largest cooperative, warns that "the summer season now lasts six months" and the olive tree has not had time to recover.
According to one association's forecasts, production in Spain will not exceed 1.2-1.3 million tonnes. This scenario is reflected in prices. After 2024, when extra virgin olive oil exceeded 8 euros/kg, prices had fallen to 3.2 euros this year. However, since September, they have returned to above 4 euros, driven by concerns about yields and growing global demand, which is expected to reach 3 million tonnes.
This development mainly affects Spanish consumers, who see the main ingredient of Mediterranean cuisine transformed into a luxury. But producers also do not feel safe: the fluctuations create uncertainty, making planning difficult.
Meanwhile, eyes are turning to international markets. The 15% tariffs imposed by the US in August have not proven disastrous, as they also apply to Mediterranean competitors. In fact, Spanish exports to the US increased by 25% in the first half of 2025, thanks to timely shipments before the measure was implemented.
The real concern comes from the exchange rate. The fall of the dollar against the euro reduces the competitiveness of Spanish oil, in a market that is a strategic destination.
The olive oil crisis is not just an agricultural or commercial issue; it is a reflection of the challenges posed by the climate crisis and our failure to adapt. If Spain, and with it the entire Mediterranean, does not find answers, the "liquid gold" risks losing its luster. And that will not only be an economic loss, but also a cultural wound to the Mediterranean way of life.
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