"Montenegro must curb budget deficit" - IMF: It risks reaching over 4% of GDP by 2030
Montenegro needs to take steps to curb costs and boost revenues in order to tackle a widening budget deficit, International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff said. The deficit is forecast to reach 3.5-3.7% of gross domestic product (GDP) this year, up from 2.9% in 2024.
"Without new measures to limit spending and increase revenues, the budget deficit is expected to continue its gradual increase, exceeding 4% of GDP by 2030," the IMF statement said.
To achieve a balanced primary budget, authorities in Podgorica need to limit public sector wage growth, eliminate ineffective tax exemptions and save revenues expected from airport concessions. However, the International Monetary Fund warned that after the next three years, these measures will not be enough to balance the budget.
According to the IMF, Montenegro will need additional funds worth 5–6% of GDP by 2035 to meet the costs associated with an aging population, defense needs, and climate change. To raise these funds, deeper fiscal reforms will be needed, such as public administration reform, linking the retirement age to life expectancy, improving efficiency in health spending, and prioritizing public projects based on economic and social benefits.
The IMF announced that Montenegro's economic growth is forecast to be 3.2% this year and is expected to remain at similar levels over the period 2026–2030. Headline inflation will remain high in 2025, with a monthly average of 4%, after accelerating to 4.6% in August. In the medium term, it is expected to show signs of slowing down towards 2%. Meanwhile, the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to gradually increase to around 65% of Gross Domestic Product by 2030.
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