Lower oil prices in 2026 - Goldman Sachs also predicts increased supply
Oil prices could fall this year as a surge in supply creates a glut in the market, although geopolitical risks related to Russia, Venezuela and Iran will continue to fuel volatility, Goldman Sachs said.
The investment bank maintained its 2026 average price forecast of $56/$52 per barrel for Brent/WTI oil and expects Brent/WTI prices to bottom out at $54/$50 in the final quarter, as OECD reserves build.
“The rise in global oil inventories and our forecast of a surplus of 2.3 barrels per day in 2026 suggest that market rebalancing is likely to require lower oil prices in 2026 to slow supply growth from non-OPEC countries and support strong demand growth, barring major supply disruptions or production cuts from OPEC,” Goldman Sachs said.
US policymakers' focus on strong energy supplies and relatively low oil prices will keep the steady rise in oil prices in check ahead of the midterm elections, analysts at the bank noted.
Prices are expected to begin to gradually recover in 2027, with the market returning to deficit as supply from non-OPEC countries slows and strong demand growth continues, Goldman analysts said in a note.
The investment bank expects the average Brent/WTI oil price to be $58/$54 in 2027, albeit $5 lower than its previous estimate, citing 2027 supply improvements in the US, Venezuela and Russia.
Goldman said it expects a significant price recovery later this decade as demand grows through 2040 after years of low investment in the long-term cycle, with Brent/WTI prices for the 2030–2035 period averaging $75/$71, $5 below its previous estimate.
Risks to price forecasts are tilted slightly to the downside, given a further increase in non-OPEC supply, Goldman said, adding that it does not expect OPEC to cut output, despite geopolitical risks and speculative low positioning.
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