'Unusual and extreme' - What do the experts predict for this winter in Europe?!
Last week parts of Europe saw the first major snowfall of the season, with severe weather warnings in place in the UK, Ireland and France. This was immediately followed by heavy rain and strong winds caused by Storm Bert. While heavy snow is common in February and March, when sea temperatures are lower, this was a rare event early in the season. It was caused when low pressure systems rose from the Atlantic Ocean to combine with cold air.
Parts of France and south-west England and even parts of Cornwall and Devon which are usually quite warm at this time of year saw some significant snowfall and Paris saw 4cm of snow on Thursday, which was highly unusual. As it turns out, Paris hasn't seen this much snow in November since 1968. That just goes to show how unusual and extreme this event was for many parts of central and northern France.
Paris doesn't get much snow even in the middle of winter, so people can't handle snow as well compared to, say, the Alps, Bavaria or Scotland. Even a small amount of snow on the roads leads to chaos and gridlock, and that's exactly what happened, even with warnings from forecasters in France saying it would be a major event.
The UK Met Office said that, "For context, the last amber warning we issued for snow was in November 2010. However, this was a much more significant and widespread snow event. We had similar numbers stations recording 2 cm of snow or more in late November 2021. So this type of event in November is not unprecedented, just not common.”
The last significant winter weather event in November 2010 was caused by the Siberian Express, when a high pressure system that usually brings calmer weather meant there were only northeasterly or easterly winds for weeks. The cold spell then lasted from the last week of November until the end of the year, and there were several nights in Western Europe when temperatures were between -15C and -20C.
What was particularly remarkable about this event is that climate change was already a problem, and temperatures were already rising globally. It wasn't as warm as it is now because it's an ongoing process, so it's unlikely we'll experience this again.
The larger the weather system, the easier it is to predict. Storm Bert was seen in the weather modeling a few days in advance and was named by Met Éireann (the Met Office in Ireland) 48 hours in advance. This allows time to issue warnings and prepare emergency plans, such as putting flood prevention measures in place.
Storm Bert, which swept across Europe this weekend, was a slow-moving storm. This was a big concern for meteorologists because the longer a storm lasts, the more likely it is to become a multi-hazard system, meaning heavy rain, flooding and strong winds.
Unfortunately, regional and smaller weather events, such as a streak of snow or a flash flood, are more difficult for forecasters to predict and usually occur with only 12 to 24 hours' notice. For meteorologists, winter officially begins only on December 1.
Countries like Germany and Belgium, in areas further from the North Sea and Atlantic Ocean, tend to have a more continental climate. This means that temperatures are usually lower in winter and higher in summer compared to coastal areas. Overall, fairly average temperatures and precipitation conditions are forecast this winter.
In northern parts of Europe, anything north of Paris, Berlin and Warsaw is likely to see wetter than average conditions, and possibly a few thunderstorms. While in south western Europe, such as southern Spain, the Mediterranean, the Alps and the Balkans, we are more likely to see drier conditions over the next three months.
That doesn't mean we won't see some wetter or drier days or months due to individual weather events. Our future winters are getting warmer due to climate change and we've already seen that in real numbers this month.
For example, the DWD weather station in Baden-Baden in southwest Germany just reported 22.2C, a new record for the last 10 days of November for all of Germany. And, already, six of the ten warmest winters on record in the UK have occurred since 2007.
It is interesting to see such a wide range of temperatures in Europe, which we have seen in November, with temperatures rising from freezing to 18 degrees Celsius. While rapid and large temperature changes are common in Asia and North America, they should be less likely to occur in the maritime climate of Europe.
Poll
Which European countries are best prepared for a cashless future?!
Europe's Nordic countries are better prepared for a cashless future than the rest of Europe, a new analysis has shown. Finansplassen, a Norwegian finance......
Bitcoin on the decline? Analysts believe Bitcoin's uptrend is not over!
The price of Bitcoin has fallen sharply over the past 24 hours, falling 3.6% to just over $94,000 (€89,000) at 5:30 am CET. The pullback appears to have been......
EU-China trade relations escalate - The next product at the center of tariffs is alcoholic beverages!
The EU Commission said it had formally brought provisional anti-dumping measures imposed by China on EU cognac imports to the World Trade Organization, the......
"Protectionist policies threaten global trade" - EBRD report: Industrial policy has turned into revenge
A global resurgence of industrial policies aimed at promoting or protecting domestic interests threatens international cooperation and could particularly......
Filters, or a ban on Tik Tok and Snapchat? - The public consultation between the Council of Parents and the Government begins
Prime Minister Edi Rama together with the Minister of Education and Sports, Ogerta Manastirliu held a public discussion at the "Sami Frashëri" school, with a......
Manufacturing businesses towards innovation and digitization - Project, production costs are reduced, competition is increased
Domestic manufacturing and exporting businesses will be supported to move towards innovative practices and investments, in order to increase productivity and......
Insurance companies, 20 billion ALL in 10 months - AMF: The number of contracts concluded for border insurance falls by 11%
In a period of 10 months, insurance companies have earned 7.5% more revenue from gross written premiums compared to the period January - October 2023. Data......
Hiding income through online trading - Bujar Muça: There are many websites that operate informally
Clothing, various accessories and even machines. Albanians continue to massively receive goods from China, where, according to INSTAT, imports during the......
