Renewable energy forecast shrinks - IEA reduces global growth projection by 900 GW by 2030
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has cut its global forecast for renewable energy capacity growth through 2030 by 900 gigawatts, compared with last year's estimate. The organization cited weaker expectations in the United States and China, even as solar power continues to lead the way with record additions.
Global renewable energy capacity is now expected to grow by 4,600 gigawatts by 2030, from a forecast of 5,500 gigawatts in 2024, with solar power accounting for about 80% of this growth, according to published data.
The downward revision is largely due to the early end of federal tax breaks in the US and other regulatory changes, cutting the Agency's expectations for US growth by almost 50%. Meanwhile, China's shift from fixed tariffs to competitive auctions is making it more difficult to finance projects.
This decline is partly offset by stronger forecasts in other regions. India is expected to become the second-fastest-growing market after China and is on track to meet its 2030 targets, thanks to expanded auctions, faster approvals and a large expansion of rooftop solar installations.
Europe's prospects have also improved, thanks to ambitious policies, higher auction volumes and accelerated approvals, while many emerging economies in Asia, the Middle East and Africa are accelerating construction.
Pumped hydro is expected to grow 80% faster over the next five years than the previous five years, while grid integration challenges are increasing, and geothermal installations are on track to reach historic levels in the United States, Japan, Indonesia and other emerging markets.
The agency warned that supply chains for solar energy and rare earths remain highly concentrated in China, with key segments expected to remain above 90% by 2030.
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