US-Iran ceasefire agreement/Oil price drops over 1% after reports
Oil futures fell more than 1% on Friday after reports that the U.S. and Iran had reached a possible deal to extend a ceasefire. Brent crude futures for July delivery fell 1.32% to $92.47 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures fell 1.55% to $87.52 a barrel.
Brent has fallen 10.5% this week, the biggest drop since the week ending April 6.
The US and Iran reached a deal on Thursday to extend a ceasefire and lift restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, although US President Donald Trump has yet to approve it.
According to analysts, the consensus remains that the conflict is over and a deal is coming. As long as this narrative holds, crude oil has room to extend its decline towards $80.
Prices have been volatile in recent sessions, fluctuating as much as $6 for both benchmarks due to conflicting signals about an end to the three-month war with Iran and the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts said a reopening of the waterway would provide immediate relief for the oil market, but a recovery is still uncertain.
According to them, upstream oil production has fallen sharply, with producers having cut production to manage storage constraints, while the recovery of production will be gradual and not immediate.
"Refineries in the region need to increase production. This will take time, given that some of this infrastructure was affected by attacks earlier in the conflict," analysts said.
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