Global inflation, high until 2028 - Economists predict rates above central banks' targets
Economists expect global inflation to remain high until at least 2028, according to a new survey that could add to market concerns.
Analysts predict an average inflation rate of 3.5% in three years, just slightly below the 3.9% forecast for 2025, according to a quarterly study conducted by the German Ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. Almost 1,400 experts from 125 countries participated in the survey in early December.
"Inflation expectations remain above the targets of many central banks. Large interest rate cuts are unlikely to occur, given these expectations," the Institute's experts note.
Recent data in the US and the euro area have fueled concerns that rising consumer prices could last longer than previously thought, leading to changes in expectations of interest rate cuts, particularly from the Fed.
According to the survey, price expectations have increased, mainly for North America. In 2025, experts see an average rate of 2.6%, 0.2 percentage points higher than in the previous round of the survey in the third quarter. The rate is forecast at 2.8% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2028.
Economists see an inflation rate of 2% in 2028 for Western Europe, while the estimate for Southern Europe is 2.7% and for Northern Europe 2.5%.
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