IEA: Oil market constrained - Agency predicts supply surplus for 2025
The global oil market may be tighter than it appears, despite a supply-demand balance that points to a surplus, the International Energy Agency said. The announcement comes as refiners ramp up processing to meet summer travel demand.
The agency, which advises industrialized countries, expects global supply to rise by 2.1 million barrels per day this year, 300,000 barrels per day more than previously forecast. World demand will grow by only 700,000 barrels per day, implying a significant surplus.
Despite these changes, increased refinery throughput rates aimed at meeting summer travel demand and power generation are tightening the market. The recent OPEC+ supply increase, announced a few days ago, has not had the desired effect.
"OPEC+'s decision to accelerate the lifting of production restrictions did not significantly impact markets, given the tighter fundamentals," the agency said.
According to the report, "price indicators also point to a tighter physical oil market than the large surplus on our balance sheets would suggest."
Earlier this week, ministers and leaders from OPEC countries and executives from major Western oil companies said that production increases are not leading to higher inventories, indicating that markets need more oil.
Next year, the International Energy Agency predicts demand growth of an average of 720,000 barrels per day, about 20,000 barrels per day lower than previously thought. Supply growth is expected to reach 1.3 million barrels per day, also indicating a surplus in the oil market.
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