"Global supply of rare metals at risk" - Goldman Sachs raises the alarm: China controls the vast majority of production
Investment bank Goldman Sachs has warned of growing risks to global supply chains for rare metals and critical minerals, highlighting China's dominance in the mining and processing sector and the difficulties other countries face in building independent supply chains.
On October 9, China expanded its restrictions on rare earth metal exports, adding five new elements and imposing new controls on users in the semiconductor industry. The measures come ahead of an expected summit between former US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
In a release to investors, Goldman Sachs said that China currently controls 69% of the world's rare earth metal production, 92% of the capacity for their processing and 98% of magnet production.
Rare metals have become a key point in international relations, as they are essential for the high-tech industry and are widely used in the production of batteries, computer chips, artificial intelligence and military equipment.
Although the global market for these minerals was worth just $6 billion last year, far less than the copper market, which is 33 times larger, Goldman Sachs stresses their importance. The bank warns that a disruption of just 10% in sectors that depend on these metals could cause up to $150 billion in damage to global economic output. In addition, potential shortages would fuel inflationary pressures in international markets.
The institution identified several elements as particularly vulnerable to export restrictions, including samarium, graphite, lutetium and terbium. Samarium, which is used in high-temperature magnets in the aerospace and military sectors, is essential to these industries. Meanwhile, disruptions in the supply of lutetium and terbium, two widely used minerals, could lead to significant losses in gross domestic product in some economies.
According to Goldman Sachs, even rare light metals such as cerium and lanthanum may become subject to further restrictions in the future, as China also maintains almost complete control in the field of mining and processing in these segments.
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