“A business goes bankrupt every 20 hours” - Global company collapses set to peak in 2026
The number of business bankruptcies globally will continue to increase through 2026, according to a forecast by international insurance company Allianz Trade.
Allianz Trade has published its latest business report, which analyzes the effects of the latest US tariffs, changes in global trade and new forecasts to 2027. The trade credit insurer predicts that global bankruptcies will end 2025 with a 6% increase, peaking in 2026 with a 5% expansion. A modest decrease of 1% is expected for 2027.
2026 will mark five years of continuous growth, with levels 24% higher than the pre-pandemic average. During the first three quarters of this year, 327 major financial collapses were recorded, an average of one every 20 hours.
The US tariffs imposed by the Trump administration with an effective rate of 11% in August 2025 and expected to increase to 14% by the end of the year have changed trade flows but have not caused a significant increase in bankruptcies. Large companies have benefited as exporters moderated prices and goods were shipped through countries such as India and Vietnam, containing rising costs. The tariffs also provided protection for US firms from foreign competition.
US insolvencies fell by about 4 percentage points due to tariffs in early 2025, but higher input costs offset these gains, resulting in a net increase of 4% for the year. Allianz Trade predicts US insolvencies will rise by 9% by the end of 2025 as cost pressures and weaker demand continue.
If the AI-fueled boom were to collapse, the United States would face an additional 4,500 bankruptcies. Business filings continue to be 36% higher than the 2016–2019 average, increasing financial vulnerability among new entrants to the market.
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