"Global debt, over 100% of GDP by 2029" - IMF: Expected to reach the highest level since 1948
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that global public debt is expected to exceed 100% of world gross domestic product (GDP) by 2029, reaching the highest level since 1948. The IMF points out that with a risk of 5%, public debt could reach 123% of GDP by 2029.
“This reflects a higher and more accelerated trajectory than that projected before the coronavirus pandemic. Moreover, the spread of risks is broad and skewed towards even faster debt growth,” the October Fiscal Monitor report said.
For most major economies, public debt already exceeds or is on track to exceed 100% of GDP. However, the number of countries with financial liabilities above 100% of GDP is expected to gradually decrease over the next five years, while these countries are projected to account for a larger share of global GDP.
Canada, China, France, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States are among the G20 countries where public debt exceeds 100% of output. According to the IMF, these countries typically have deep and liquid sovereign bond markets, as well as greater room for fiscal policy, so their fiscal risk is considered moderate.
In contrast, many developing economies and low-income countries face more severe fiscal challenges, despite a lighter fiscal burden.
"The number of countries with public debt below 60% of GDP increased to over 100 in 2021 and is expected to continue to grow, even though their share of global GDP represents less than 30%," the report said.
The IMF points out that developing countries have very few options for financing and alternative policies. Although their debt-to-GDP ratios are often below 60%, 55 countries are currently in crisis or at high risk of experiencing it.
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