The rise of conservative forces in Canada - The causes of the fall from power of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau
The Conservative Party's popularity in Canada has grown due to economic-political tensions and immigration, offering a credible alternative for the upcoming election. The Conservatives have promised major changes, including tax cuts and tighter border controls.
Justin Trudeau has been Prime Minister of Canada since November 2015, longer than any other leader of a major Western democracy. But a series of political tensions, including the resignation of his finance minister, one of his closest allies, has led him to resign from power.
General elections must be held by October; Public opinion polls suggest that liberals face difficulties overcoming discontent over issues such as the cost of living and immigration. This has opened the door for the Conservative Party of Canada, led by Pierre Poilievre, to regain power.
Why is the Conservative Party growing in popularity?
Polls show that Canadians want change and they are unhappy with the economy under Trudeau's leadership. Canada's Gross Domestic Product has contracted for six consecutive quarters on a per capita basis. That's a 3.5% drop from the peak in 2022, something never seen outside of a recession. The only thing preventing an outright recession is rapid population growth, largely due to immigration.
Unemployment is increasing. Wages cannot match food prices. The dream of home ownership appears to be out of reach for many young Canadians, a key voting factor that helped elect Trudeau.
Conservatives have relied on these complaints. They blame Trudeau's policies for more openness to immigration, carbon taxes and more expensive living. Poilievre focused on inflation and housing even before he became party leader more than two years ago, and has been consistent on the issue.
Where are the liberals stuck?
During his nine years in power, Trudeau has faced several controversies, including allegations that he tried to persuade his attorney general, an indigenous woman, to intervene to help a major engineering firm escape a criminal investigation. and then fired her when she refused the job.
In July 2023, with his popularity declining, Trudeau reshuffled the cabinet, removing several senior ministers, but the move did not achieve the expected results. His Liberal Party lost three special elections in 2024, including two in Toronto and Montreal, long considered safe seats.
Why is immigration so important?
Immigration touches on key issues for voters: the economy, housing, jobs, public services and infrastructure. Canada's support for new arrivals was deeply rooted in the belief that there is a benefit to immigration. But more Canadians are beginning to question that idea after immigration rules were loosened in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. The government eased restrictions on temporary foreign workers and some provincial governments allowed an influx of international students. The result was an expansion of population growth to more than 3% per year.
For the first time since 1998, a majority of Canadians now say there is more immigration than needed. Record inflows have exacerbated housing shortages, driven up rents and contributed to rising unemployment rates. Even Trudeau, whose policy for years has sought to increase the level of immigration, now wants to reduce it.
The government's stricter regulations in this sector have started to slow population growth. Poilievre has said he will link immigration levels to housing, jobs and health care capacity. He has also promised to eliminate the federal sales tax on the purchase of new homes under C$1 million and end a Trudeau program that transferred billions of dollars to cities to encourage the construction of multi-unit homes.
What other issues have the Conservatives benefited from?
US President-elect Donald Trump's threat to impose sweeping tariffs on Canadian products is the country's biggest economic risk.
Poilievre has tried to position himself as stronger on the border than Trudeau, trying to address concerns raised by Trump about drugs and immigrants.
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