The past "haunts" the future - Why do Germany, Italy, Japan still depend on the US nuclear shield?
Concerned by global instability, countries from Europe and Asia are drastically increasing their military spending. At a time when US involvement abroad appears to be waning under President Donald Trump, some countries worry that this approach could encourage the actions of nations like Russia and China on the global stage.
Given such uncertainty, Germany, Italy and Japan are trying to strengthen their defense capabilities. However, the three countries, which formed the Axis Alliance in World War II, are weighed down by their past, according to experts.
"The aim of the post-war peace treaties was to get rid of hegemonism, militarism and aggressive adventurism in the culture of these three countries. Germany, Italy and Japan have become so-called civil powers nowadays, it is really difficult for these countries to adopt a combat-ready mentality," the analysts add. According to them, these non-nuclear states will continue to depend on the US for nuclear deterrence.
Germany's plan to strengthen the army
Last week, Germany's Christian Democrats (CDU) and Social Democrats (SPD) agreed to set aside a constitutional debt curb, allowing the country to unlock hundreds of billions of euros for defense and infrastructure projects.
This came as German defense spending reached 2% of the country's GDP, three years after outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz promised to boost the military through 100 billion euros in investment.
The gaps in the country's defense capabilities are significant, according to a recent German parliamentary report. The data suggests that the German military would need to recruit tens of thousands of people by 2031.
Germany also needs to modernize its armaments, as much of its equipment has become obsolete since the end of the Cold War. The budget committee has doubled planned purchases of modern air defense systems and battle tanks.
Despite plans to expand the military, Germany is still bound, at least rhetorically, by decades of anti-militarism. After the end of World War II, the country, which was divided into East and West, had to adhere to strict military restrictions.
When Friedrich Merz, the center-right politician who will serve as chancellor, recently announced his massive military investment plan, he spoke of participation with his country's allies.
"It is a deliberately chosen formulation to counter a culture built on domestic anti-militarism. The German army can only grow in a strict European political context, its rearmament is more about a joint EU financial effort," analysts say.
French President Emmanuel Macron has spoken about the possibility of extending the country's nuclear deterrent to Germany and other EU partners, who would help financially expand it.
However, some Europeans believe the current approach is better, despite the Trump administration's threat to reduce the role it plays in European security.
"One nuclear shield is better than two, because then there is no ambiguity about which nuclear defense is keeping you safe," defense experts say. "We have a Plan A, which has worked for 80 years, and it is in our and the American interest that this plan, the NATO nuclear deterrent, remains operational," they add.
Italy and a common concern
Italy shares Germany's concerns about the United States' reduction of its military role in Europe. There are currently about 120 US and NATO installations in Italy.
Rome's defense spending is below Germany's as a percentage of its economy. Italy spends 1.59% of GDP on the military, far below the level Trump wants for NATO members.
As part of the planned upgrades, Italian arms manufacturer Leonardo has reached an agreement with its German counterpart Rheinmetall to produce a joint tank. Italy, Japan and the UK are also planning to produce a sixth-generation fighter jet.
In terms of nuclear deterrence, Rome, like Berlin, must rely on US nuclear protection.
Japan and the divided region
Japan's government recently said it would increase military spending from 1.6% to 2% of GDP by 2027.
Tokyo, which neighbors China, Russia and North Korea, plans to upgrade its air defense systems. The US military presence in Japan remains substantial, with more than 50,000 US troops stationed there, including on the island of Okinawa.
The American nuclear deterrent is the backbone of Japan's security system, as its population is strongly anti-nuclear, due to the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Japan does not benefit from collective defense like Europe, as the Indo-Pacific region is more politically and militarily fragile, despite strong economic interdependence.
"For its security, Japan very much needs US protection and this is why NATO has increased its partnership in the Indo-Pacific region," the analysts explain.
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