Americans re-elect Donald Trump - Existential defeat for Democrats and hope for US allies
There was so much talk about Kamala Harris' Hollywood vibe, joy, optimism and smile. But America rejected the marketing. Four years ago, the winner Joe Biden called Donald Trump a "wrong moment". Since Trump won the popular vote in addition to America's electoral college, history will surely now bestow that designation on Biden.
Above all, Trump is among the most popular and most investigated presidents in the history of the United States of America. Electing Trump as president once may be an accident; but choosing it a second time is no longer a coincidence. Trump is legally the next president of the United States of America.
The question is why? In part, it can be explained by the fact that enough Americans want what Trump is selling: the mass deportation of illegal immigrants, the end of globalization, and the middle finger to the liberal elite's approach to identity. All of this overcame any doubts voters had about Trump's character.
That the US has elected a convicted felon who has also been accused of trying to subvert recent elections and is an open admirer of autocrats can be interpreted in two ways. Either voters don't take seriously the danger Trump poses, or they know exactly where they're letting the country go, but they still call it business as usual.
Either way, Trump's re-election is an existential disaster for Democrats. It also represents a historic game changer for America's allies. Democratic objections will come very quickly. Any autopsy is sure to highlight the fact that a visibly ill Biden waited too long to give up his party's nomination.
If Biden had retired six months earlier, Democrats would have had time to find a better prospect than Harris. Maybe even a real race in the "primary" would not have made any difference. To be fair to Harris, she ran a well-curated campaign, beat Trump in the only televised debate, and rallied Democrats behind her.
But Harris was mediocre at best whenever the conversation turned to the economy, a topic she did her best to avoid. The lack of a compelling economic narrative would be a major handicap in any US election. So, if the "primaries" had been held within the Democrats, this flaw of Harris would have been revealed.
After inheriting the crown from Biden, Kamala Harris had little time and little incentive to correct her shortcomings. However, she still could have created a "Sister Souljah"-like moment to prove she wasn't a Berkeley radical. Bill Clinton's criticism of this black author in 1992 showed that he was not an old-fashioned liberal, which helped him get elected president.
Harris was careful to avoid her ties to more outlandish progressive causes during the short 16-week campaign. But she did not succeed in forgetting her previous support for open borders and lower financial support for the police.
Biden can also be blamed for overstating his 2020 victory. This was the result of Trump's mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic, not concerns about the health of American democracy. Biden won by promising to end the pandemic and restore normalcy to American politics.
In the period between his nomination and inauguration, however, Biden began to believe he had a license for sweeping change. The massive $1.9 trillion in stimulus fueled inflation, which had meanwhile been rising due to supply-side distortions.
Of course, Trump posed a profound threat to the US constitutional order, as he does now with steroids. Biden picked Merrick Garland as attorney general, who was in no rush to hold Trump to account.
As with Hillary Clinton's loss in 2016, there are many fingerprints on Harris' loss. But it will be much more difficult this time to blame foreign actors. Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, will no doubt see big advantages from Trump's re-election, especially with regard to Ukraine. However, it was the Americans who returned Trump to office without apparent help. Either way, the Democrats' blame game will be secondary to figuring out what comes next. Trump has vowed revenge, and he means it.
It is entirely possible that the Republicans will achieve a triple: the presidency, the Senate, which is already secure, and the House of Representatives, which remains in the balance. If Republicans take full control of Capitol Hill, there will be little check on Trump's executive authority. The US Supreme Court already wrote President Trump the equivalent of a blank judicial check when it ruled in July that he had blanket immunity for his actions as president.
America has entered a crucial corner. It would be wrong to assume that Trump didn't mean what he said when he vowed to go after his enemies. It would also be delusional to think that he will feel in any way constrained by the 50-50 split of his country. Trump has a mandate to overhaul the US in unimaginably destructive ways. There will be no going back from the seismic outcome of the 2024 election in America.
(Translated by The Economist)
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