"Gas prices will rise further" - Low temperatures and replenishment of deposits, boost demand
Natural gas prices in Asia, Europe and North America have risen by around 30% to 50% so far in 2024 and look set to continue rising over the coming months as forecasts of cold weather boost demand for heating in the main customer centers.
Active replenishment of fast-dwindling gas stocks in Europe and Asia is also expected to fuel strong demand, even if temperatures soften in those areas, according to the London Stock Exchange Group. This will see the market remain broadly bullish until the end of winter, while prices may have room to reduce after the first months of 2025.
As a result, energy costs in key global markets will rise, endangering fragile economic development in China and Europe, and raising new inflation concerns.
Higher costs drive the need for more generation from coal-fired power plants, which are cheaper than gas-fired but generate about 55% more emissions per unit of power output.
Higher heating gas use across North America, Europe and North Asia is the main short-term driver of global prices. These regions account for over two-thirds of the global total and are poised to enter their peak period in the coming months.
In addition, for the first time in years, average temperatures in the main gas markets of China, Japan and continental Europe will all fall below long-term averages this month. This will result in a synchronized increase in demand for gas heating which is expected to further increase prices.
In Europe, a drop in below-normal temperatures is forecast this month, especially in major gas markets such as Italy and Germany.
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