"Stable growth of the global economy is expected" - OECD warns of the consequences of trade tensions and protectionism
The world economy is expected to see steady growth in the next two years if resurgent protectionism does not hamper the recovery in global trade, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said.
The world economy will grow by 3.2% this year and 3.3% in 2025 and 2026 as lower inflation, job growth and lower interest rates help offset fiscal tightening in some countries, the Organization said in its latest outlook. economic.
After a slump in global trade last year, it is recovering and growth in volumes is expected to reach 3.6% next year, despite a growing number of measures to limit the flow of imports, the OECD said.
"Rising trade tensions and further moves towards protectionism could disrupt supply chains, raise consumer prices and have a negative impact," the Organization said.
The outlook for global trade has clouded since US President-elect Donald Trump has launched calls to raise tariffs on various major trading partners. As a "cold" labor market causes consumer spending to decline, the OECD predicted that US growth would ease from 2.8% this year, to 2.4% next year and 2.1% in 2026.
In China, the world's second-largest economy, growth is expected to ease from 4.9% in 2024, to 4.7% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026, despite monetary and fiscal easing, as consumer spending remains subdued.
Meanwhile, in the eurozone, investment will benefit from central bank easing and tight labor markets will support consumer spending, pushing growth from 0.8% this year to 1.3% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026.
With many governments' public finances struggling, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said countries must take action to stabilize debt burdens.
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