The war in the Middle East "hits" Dubai - Pessimistic figures from tourism, air transport and trade
The war in the Middle East has proven to be a major test for the economy of Dubai, which before the conflict began was an important tourist center, as well as an air transport hub.
Data collected by the New York Times sheds light on the challenges. Before the war, Dubai authorities had announced that by 2025, the United Arab Emirates’ trade would exceed $1 trillion for the first time. That made the emirate the only trading hub with such a large value in the Middle East. But now many of the sectors that had fueled that growth are under constant pressure because of the ongoing conflicts.
Last month, Moody's Analytics predicted that occupancy at Dubai's luxury hotels could fall to just 10% in the second quarter, from 80% before the war. Moody's warned that occupancy rates are likely to remain low through the rest of 2026. Popular hotels, including Dubai's iconic sail-shaped building, the Burj Al Arab, have closed for renovations.
Dubai International Airport, the world's busiest international hub last year, reported a two-thirds drop in passenger traffic in March. Although airspace restrictions have been lifted, more than a dozen airlines have canceled all flights to Dubai.
In the trade sector, the situation is even more worrisome. About 1,600 miles southwest of Dubai is Jebel Ali, the largest container port outside East Asia. Jebel Ali was closed in March after attacks on several ships. DP World, the state-owned operator of the port, has since reopened the facility along the route, but traffic remains far below pre-war levels. The problems in transport and trade are directly affecting the economy. The emirate’s economy, which includes oil-rich Abu Dhabi, is expected to shrink by 5.6% this year, according to Goldman Sachs. That’s a sharp reversal from last year, when annual economic growth was 6%.
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