"China, a key factor in the global demand for oil" - Consumption will remain high due to the development of the petrochemical industry
China will continue to play an important role in global oil demand due to its focus on petrochemicals, while fuel consumption in the road transport sector has peaked amid the energy transition, Vitol's global head of research said. .
The world's No. 2 oil consumer will continue to add petrochemical capacity in the coming years, even as usage rates are expected to decline.
"Next year's growth alone is fully capable of satisfying total global demand for plastics. There is no doubt that this will be the driving force behind oil demand in China and globally," the Vitol chief said.
China's oil consumption, which has been driving global demand growth for years, rose very little in 2024 as gasoline and diesel use fell as electric vehicles grew rapidly and liquefied natural gas replaced oil as a fuel. the truck.
"China is a driving force for oil, pushing the peak demand for oil to the extent that the transition technologies that have been implemented in China are successful," he added.
China's demand for gasoline is likely to have peaked this year, with growth estimated at 22,000 barrels per day in 2024, as sales of new electric vehicles surpassed conventional cars for the first time. The pace at which China's demand for gasoline falls in the coming years depends on the renewal of its car fleet, which could be driven by Beijing's stimulus policy.
Vitol has pushed back the forecast for peak global oil demand to the 2030s with slower electric vehicle growth and lower commitments to environmental targets.
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