Iran holds the key to reopening global energy markets - Outage, 10 million barrels per day, 10% of global demand
When Saudi Aramco informed oil buyers that it had no clear idea which port it would use for April exports, it highlighted a new reality: Iran, not the United States, holds the key to reopening the global energy market.
The letter reflects the growing belief inside and outside the Middle East that, while the United States and Israel can declare the war over at any time, Iran will have the final say on the duration of what the International Energy Agency called the worst oil and gas supply disruption of all time.
The emergency release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves, agreed by the International Energy Agency to cope with the supply shock in the Middle East, is more than double its previous record action in 2022.
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly said that the United States is close to victory in the rapidly escalating war.
But Iran has retaliated against US-Israeli attacks on it by shooting down ships in the Strait of Hormuz with drones and missiles, disrupting the flow of global oil and liquefied gas supplies.
Senior executives of Middle Eastern companies and their Western counterparts warn that it will take more than just US assurances of security to restart maritime traffic.
The crisis has exposed weaknesses in the protection of the power system, an energy consultant said. The return to normality will take months and insurance for shipments will be more expensive and harder to find because of the perceived higher risk, he added.
The Iranian attacks have caused refinery shutdowns in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Israel, sending oil and gas prices up by as much as 60%. Analysts estimate that total Middle East oil production cuts are now at 7-10 million barrels per day, or 7-10% of global demand.
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