"The world will face an oil surplus in 2025" - IEA warns that supply will exceed demand next year
Global oil supply will exceed demand in 2025 even if OPEC+ cuts remain in place, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced.
The prospect of a supply glut of more than 1 million barrels a day, equivalent to more than 1% of world output, flies in the face of a plan by OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, to start increasing production. production.
Oil demand growth has been weaker than expected this year, largely due to China. After years of rising oil consumption, economic challenges and a shift to electric vehicles are dampening oil growth prospects in the world's second-largest consumer.
"China's apparent slowdown has been the main drag on demand. The rapid expansion of clean energy technologies is increasingly replacing oil in transportation and power generation," the agency said in its monthly oil market report.
The Paris-based agency revised its 2025 oil demand growth forecast slightly to 990,000 barrels per day. At the same time, it expects non-OPEC+ countries to increase supply by 1.5 million barrels a day, led by the United States, Canada, Guyana and Argentina, more than the rate of growth in demand.
Next year's surplus, as predicted by the agency, could make it more difficult for OPEC+ to bring back production. Earlier this month, OPEC+ again pushed back a plan to ease production cuts as prices slump.
"Our current balance sheet suggests that even if OPEC+ cuts remain in place, global supply exceeds demand by more than 1 million barrels per day next year," the Energy Agency said.
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