US Tariff “Ceasefire” - China Exports Exceed Forecasts
China's exports rose more than expected in June, official data showed, after Washington and Beijing agreed to a preliminary deal to reduce stagnant tariffs on each other. Data from the General Administration of Customs said exports rose 5.8 percent year on year. Imports rose 1.1 percent, higher than the 0.3 percent increase expected and marking the first increase this year.
China's exports hit record highs in 2024, a lifeline for its slowing economy as pressures elsewhere mounted. Beijing's efforts to support growth have been hit by a bitter trade war with the United States, fueled by President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs, although the two sides eased their "quarrel" with a deal at talks in London last month.
Customs figures showed Chinese exports to the United States rose 32.4% in June after falling the previous month, according to an AFP tally based on official data. Analysts say China's economy is expected to have expanded more than 5% in the second quarter thanks to its strong exports.
But they also warn that Trump's trade war could cause a significant slowdown in the last six months of the year. Beijing is targeting overall expansion of about 5% in 2025, the same as last year but a figure considered ambitious by many experts.
First-quarter growth came in at 5.4%, beating forecasts and putting the economy on a positive trajectory. Beijing has struggled to sustain growth since the pandemic, while grappling with a protracted debt crisis in the property sector, chronically low consumption and high youth unemployment.
Data released last week showed consumer prices rose sharply in June, barely breaking a four-month deflationary slump, but factory prices fell at their fastest pace in nearly two years. Many economists argue that China needs to shift to a growth model driven more by domestic consumption than by the traditional main drivers of infrastructure investment, manufacturing and exports.
Beijing has introduced a series of measures since last year in an effort to boost spending, including a subsidy scheme for consumer goods trade that temporarily boosted retail activity.
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